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POST MORTEM 1: DON’T COUNT ON THE OLDIES DYING OFF

Over the past two years Scot-Buzz has charted the rise of the older entrepreneur – more people are using their retirement savings to start a business, while the number of over 65s in work has climbed to more than one million.

In fact, the over 65s have been the fastest growing age segment of the UK’s labour force for more than five years.

But the over 65s are also a growing political force – and they played a critical role in the independence referendum. An astonishing 73 per cent of over 65s are reckoned to have voted against independence.

Pro-union politicians’ warnings that pensions might be at risk in an independent Scotland undoubtedly played a part in steering the older vote.

First Minister Alex Salmond left no doubt at the weekend that he blamed elderly Scots who were most opposed to leaving the UK for holding back the younger generation and that independence would be inevitable once they had died off.

This assertion is not just deeply offensive. It is also absurd.

In Scotland, those 55 and over represent 36 per cent of Scotland’s voting-age population. And the population is getting older.

According to the General Register Office for Scotland, over the next ten years the number of Scots households headed by people aged 60 and over is reckoned at 990,000 – a rise of more than 30 per cent in 20 years.

The problem for Alex Salmond is that demographic dynamics run counter to his assertion. More people are getting older than will conveniently die off.

It doesn’t mean, of course, that all people over the age of 60 are opposed to independence.

But as people age, their concerns change. They become more conscious and concerned about their lifetime savings and their pensions to see them through retirement.

Many are apprehensive about leaving themselves totally dependent on the basic state pension. So they carefully accumulate savings. As a result, they have potentially more to lose in a radical upheaval that could affect the safety and stability of those nest-eggs.

This has important implications for political campaigns and was a constituency that the ‘Yes’ campaign  neglected given the massive attention to school leavers and young people. The quiet, reticent and retired - semi or otherwise - also have a vote. They have – in the lurid lexicon of policy wonks, “more skin in the game”. And – a small point perhaps - they might not quite care to vote for a First Minister who is eagerly awaiting their esrly demise.

Finally, according to marketing consultants Furthr, they might not care much for Devo Max either.

Devo Max, at root, means that most cross-subsidy between nations is cut. Scotland would largely rely on its own taxes, so Scots would bear more pain from the decline in North Sea revenue and the country’s ageing population.

That, says Furthr, is why Scots politicians might choose to stick with something more modest than sweeping powers in any Devo Max settlement.

We will see...